(Bloomberg) — Most Asian stocks are set to fall early Monday as traders rein in expectations of Federal Reserve easing and come to terms with the cost of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal and trade policies.
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Australian shares fell while equity futures in Japan and mainland China pointed to losses. Contracts in Hong Kong edged higher. US futures were steady after the S&P 500 slid 1.3% on Friday to erase more than half of its gains following the US election.
A soft start risks extending last week’s global selloff as investors price the prospect of Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts potentially reigniting inflation in an already robust US economy. Views are emerging that the Fed may pause its easing cycle in 2025, with the odds of a rate cut next month now seen as less than a coin toss.
“Another Fed cut is still likely in December but it’s now a close call,” Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Ltd. in Sydney, wrote in a note to clients. “A slower pace of easing is likely next year, particularly given that Trump’s policies regarding tariffs and more tax cuts provide some upside threats to inflation on a one-to-three year view.”
The dollar was steady against major peers in early trading after climbing 1.4% last week, a seventh straight weekly gain as Treasury yields surged on slashed expectations for Fed policy. The moves, coupled with concerns over Chinese growth, have ravaged everything from the Australian dollar to emerging market bonds. Asian stocks slumped 3.9% last week, their worst sell-off in about six months.
In commodities, oil slipped while gold climbed. Ukraine’s allies are pushing Volodymyr Zelenskiy to consider new ways to end the war with Russia as the US mulls a final decision to lift some restrictions of western-made weapons to strike limited military targets in Russia.
In Asia on Monday, traders will be watching a speech and media briefing by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda for indications of the central bank’s next policy move after officials raised concerns over the rapid weakening of the yen. Markets are pricing about 14 basis points of rate hikes in December, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg, ahead of inflation data this week.
“Ueda’s press conference should be the biggest focus of this week in gauging the timing of the BOJ’s next rate hike,” Barclays strategists led by Themistoklis Fiotakis wrote in a note to clients. “USD/JPY could remain under upward pressure in the short term due to the Trump and yen carry trades, but will likely rise more slowly as it approaches 160 on FX intervention concerns and positioning for faster rate hikes.”
Elsewhere this week, China’s banks are expected to keep their loan prime rates unchanged after a cut in October. Bank Indonesia will deliver a policy decision as the rupiah neared 16,000 per dollar on Friday, a key psychological level for a central bank focused on currency stability.
UK and eurozone inflation readings are due which will help gauge the outlook for Bank of England and European Central Bank policy with a swath of officials from the respective central banks also due to speak. Nvidia’s results may test the sustainability of AI-led stock gains.
While expectations for a blowout number seem low, “options traders see a greater risk of the share price kicking higher on the earnings release,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “Guidance from the hyperscaler businesses suggests demand for GPUs is incredibly strong, so one can understand why options traders are positioned for near-term upside.”
Key events this week:
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BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks, Monday
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Group of 20 Summit in Brazil begins, Monday
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European Union foreign ministers meet in Brussels, Monday
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RBA meeting minutes, Tuesday
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Eurozone CPI, Tuesday
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Canada CPI, Tuesday
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China loan prime rates, Wednesday
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Indonesia rate decision, Wednesday
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South Africa retail sales, CPI, Wednesday
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UK CPI, Wednesday
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Nvidia earnings, Wednesday
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ECB President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis De Guindos speak, Wednesday
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ECB issues financial stability review, Wednesday
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Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speak, Wednesday
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BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks, Wednesday
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RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaks, Thursday
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Japan CPI, Friday
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India HSBC Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday
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Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday
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UK retail sales, S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday
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US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
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S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 8:14 a.m. Tokyo time
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Hang Seng futures rose 0.2%
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Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4%
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Nikkei 225 futures fell 1.6%
Currencies
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The euro was little changed at $1.0536
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The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 154.57 per dollar
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The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2425 per dollar
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The Australian dollar was unchanged at $0.6462
Cryptocurrencies
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Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $89,398.76
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Ether fell 0.3% to $3,054.78
Bonds
Commodities
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West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $66.77 a barrel
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Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,569.73 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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