US Polls Show No Clear Leader: Dollar Weakens – Market Insights

(Bloomberg) — The dollar fell as the latest raft of US presidential election polling data showed no clear advantage between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Oil rose after OPEC+ delayed a hike in output.

The greenback dropped against most major currencies such as the yen and the Australian dollar in early Monday trading, while 10-year Treasury futures rose.

The weakening of the greenback was a sign to some that investors may be walking back confidence in a victory for Donald Trump, after a poll by the Des Moines Register showed Harris with a 47%-44% lead in Iowa — a state Trump has won in each of his prior elections. One element of the so-called Trump trade favors higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar.

Polls released Sunday showed the two candidates poised for a photo finish, with voters narrowly split both nationally and across the pivotal swing states.

Shares in Australia and South Korea climbed. US stock futures slipped, however, after Wall Street’s gains Friday following robust earnings from the likes of Amazon.com and Intel Corp. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, which means there will be no Treasuries trading in Asian hours.

“To the extent there was something to the ‘Trump trade’ last week, it is beating a bit of a retreat this morning,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney.

Wall Street tried not to read too much into jobs data Friday showing US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 in October while the unemployment rate remained low. The numbers were distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike. The jobs report is the last major data point before the election.

In Australia, Westpac Banking Corp. increased its share buyback to A$2 billion ($1.3 billion) and reported profit that beat estimates. The shares edged lower.

Oil, Gold

West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, rose more than 1% early Monday, extending its run of daily advances to four. OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month, the second delay to its plans to revive supply as prices continue to struggle amid a fragile economic outlook.

Gold was stable at around $2,738 per ounce. The price of the precious metal has fallen in the prior two trading sessions after hitting a record high last week.

Data set for release in Asia Monday includes HSBC PMI manufacturing figures for India and an interest rate decision in Pakistan.

In China, officials unveiled steps to attract foreign money just days before US elections that have raised concern about the impact on the world’s second-biggest economy from a return of Donald Trump to the White House. Foreign individuals are now allowed to provide capital for publicly traded firms as strategic investors, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Commerce Ministry and four other regulators said in a statement late Friday.

Story Continues